German scientists have assessed the demand for resources such as glass and silver before 2100, and found that the current technological learning rate may be sufficient to avoid supply concerns.

Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) are trying to estimate how much float glass the photovoltaic industry might need to help the world reach terawatts of installed solar capacity. Achieve climate goals and limit global warming to 1.5 C.

Scientists outlined two different scenarios: one is a conservative forecast, the world's cumulative photovoltaic capacity will reach 20 TW by 2050, and 80 TW by 2100, and the other more optimistic scenario is to predict that by 2050 The global photovoltaic capacity will reach 80 TW, and by 2101 it will reach 170 TW. .

For these two scenarios, they believe that the maximum carbon dioxide budget for the period 2011-2100 is 600 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

"These two scenarios cover a reasonable range of parameter values ​​that describe the price learning curve of photovoltaics, the scale of system integration challenges, the upgrade dynamics of carbon capture and storage (CCS), and the development of end-use demand for electrification," they Explained.

Based on these two situations, the German group predicts that the annual output of solar glass in 2020 can reach between 1,000 square kilometers and 1,300 square kilometers, and by 2100, it can reach between 12,000 square kilometers and 22,000 square kilometers. In the study, the scientists assumed that the efficiency of solar cell modules was 6.7%, starting from 20% in 2020.

The organization stated: "From the perspective of the total area of ​​effective photovoltaic capacity, the value will increase from 4,200 to 4,600 square kilometers in 2020 to 252,000 to 466,000 square kilometers in 2100." "From this perspective, the value of 2100 is roughly the same. Corresponds to the area of ​​land in the UK or Sweden."

Researchers predict that the share of double-sided glass-glass components will increase in the next few decades, and the reduction of glass thickness from 3 mm to 2 mm will help meet the huge demand triggered by this trend.

They stated: "As early as in Scenario 2 in 2034 and Scenario 1 in 2074, the amount of float glass required for photovoltaic production based entirely on double-glazed glass will exceed the current total annual glass output of 84 Mt." "In 2100, glass Consumption will reach 122 to 215 metric tons."

Scholars explained that the available sand reserves for glass manufacturing do not represent a problem for future glass supply, but the photovoltaic and glass industries will have to expand production capacity in the next few decades to avoid bottlenecks and reduce costs. More importantly, the efficiency of photovoltaic modules must be significantly improved. By 2030, the efficiency of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 24.1% and 25.9%, respectively.

"The roadmap predicts that the solar cell efficiency of the leading products of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic's n-type and p-type products will reach 25%," they added, noting that no specific technical learning of solar glass is expected.

Emerging technologies, such as perovskite solar cells and other cell technologies with efficiencies higher than 25%, may help to substantially reduce the amount of solar glass needed in this century if the industry matures commercially.

"Just recently, a major commercialization effort for thin dual-glass perovskite modules has been announced, which will reduce the demand for glass by an order of magnitude," the German team said, referring to the roll-to-roll development of perovskite photovoltaics on glass. Printing Technology is headquartered in New York-based start-up Energy Materials Corporation.

The scientists presented their findings in the "Resource-Efficient Terawatt Photovoltaic Technology Learning" recently published in the Journal of Energy and Environmental Science. The study also analyzed the demand for silver and indium, the projected cost of photovoltaics, and the greenhouse gas emissions of the solar industry.

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